Historical May 1993 article. Dates, prices, services and contacts describe the source period; current availability has not been established.
St. Louisans made history on both March 2 and April 6 by selecting an African-American. Freeman Bosley Jr , as their mayor and also reelecting Virvus Jones. an African-American, as comptroller Initial reactions to the election credited either white voters in the central corridor as key to Bosley’s victory or saw it as the reaction to the highly negative campaign waged by the two white candidates, aldermanic president Thomas Villa and state representative Anthony Ribaudo It is often difficult to measure the turnout rate of either whites or blacks alone and to discern the degree to which members of each race voted for mididates of the other one.
In St. Louis. a number of city neighborhoods are home to both black and white voters and members of each race live in all parts of the city.
We were able to use computer geo-mapping for data aggregation and a statistical model developed by Goodman (1953) for prediction. Because of its accuracy. Goodman’s model frequently has been used to develop evidence in voting rights litigation.
We reorganized 1990 census population counts into the new wards and precincts and used these data with ward and precinct electoral results to predict the probability of whites voting for blacks and vice versa in the March 2nd primary Turnout was heavier in this primary election than in others from the 1980s.
In particular, the traditionally African- American wards on the north and the traditionally white south side wards in• creased their turnout dramatically.
The central corridor lagged behind Using the Goodman model, we find that. in the mayoral contest, on average 32.9 percent of whites 18 years of age and older voted. 30.0 percent of African-Americans in this age group voted as well.
For comparative purposes, the model predicts that on average 22 percent of African-Americans voted in the comptroller’s race in 1989 and 24 percent turned out to vote for a president of the Board of Aldermen in 1987.
We were able to compare our findings with those from other industrial cities with a similar percentage of African-Americans. Judging from the pertinent literature, several factors clearly are associated with a city’s selection of its first African-American mayor. Increased turnout among African-Americans , for example, is a critical variable.
A second criterion is strong united support for an African- American candidate.
In St. Louis, although Freeman Bosley Jr. and Steven Roberts both were contestants, it is clear that Bosley captured the lion’s share of the black vote, giving him a formidable base. Two African-American candidates also contended in Atlanta in 1973; in similar fashion, Maynard Jackson was the clear favorite while Leroy Johnson garnered only 4 percent of the vote in that city’s primary.
A third condition generally needed by African-American candidates to win is some share of the white vote.
The range of white vote for African-American candidates in cities such as Atlanta, Chicago. Detroit. Philadelphia. New York, and New Orleans ranges from 8 to 22 percent. Scholars describing the elections in these cities have noted that whites supporting African-American candidates are generally liberal, educated and more well-off financially, and often Jewish (particularly in New York, Chicago. and Philadelphia).
We applied the Goodman model (1953) to the March 2nd primary results and found that in St. Louis the overall probability of white voters casting ballots for African-American candidates was 16.4 percent This technique does not permit us to differentiate between votes for Bosley and Roberts but the totals from the corridor and south side indicate that Bosley was the favorite there as well.
In order to understand the dynamics of this vote, we can compare it to other recent St. Louis elections.
We also show that in the races for both mayor and comptroller, African-American voters cast almost no votes for the white candidates. (See inset) These data show that white St. Louisans voted for African-American candidates in record numbers and in numbers in keeping with results from similar cities.
These results also show that Virvus Jones maintained his share of the white vote although he no longer enjoyed the support of the Schoemehl organization. Results from the central corridor are more striking.
In wards 6, 7, 8, 17, and 28 which have a voting age population that is 35.4 percent African-American, Bosley was a clear winner.
In these wards, the probability that white voters cast ballots for African-Americans is 43 percent.
This is a record high. Incumbent Virvus Jones received 32 percent of the white vote in the central corridor, equaling his 1989 showing.
The 1990 census data show the south side wards having a voting age population that is 96 percent white. Our model predicts that on average 13.7 percent of white voters in these south side wards casting their ballots for an African-American for mayor and 9.6 per- cent for an African-American for comptroller.
These findings are generally comparable with other large cities.
They are particularly significant when compared to results from Chicago.
There virtually no votes for Harold Washington were cast in the city’s white bastions on the northwest and southwest sides.
We conclude that Freeman Bosley Jr., St. Louis’s first African-American mayor, won for a number of reasons. African-Americans voted in greater numbers than in previous municipal elections and concentrated their support on Bosley.
The two white candidates divided votes and also campaigned negatively.
The African-American candidates campaigned on the issues, mentioned inclusivity. and did not use negative commercials or rhetoric. And. there is clear evidence of biracial backing for the new mayor, particularly in the central corridor.
In addition, and again unlike Chicago, neither the primary nor the general election campaigns employed racial invective nor pandered to racial fears (ex.. Vote. Epton before it’s too late).
In a city whose voting population is only 43% African-American, African- Americans won citywide elections with solid black support and some white support.
The latter increased greatly in the April general election and we will model that in the future.
Model estimates reproduced from original table:
| Election | White vote for African-Americans | African-American vote for whites | |—|—:|—:| |1987 President, Board of Aldermen|1%|2%| |1989 Comptroller|11%|5%| |1989 Mayor|7%|31%| |1993 Comptroller|11%|0%| |1993 Mayor|16%|0%|
Originally published in The Times of Skinker-DeBaliviere, May 1993.
Read this article in the original newspaper issue.
Original source: SD_Times1993_05.pdf, printed page(s) 7; PDF page(s) 6.
